IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Грузияwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Туркменистанloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Грузия
No games played over 6 months.
Туркменистан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
368 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 506 bans
Mars
261 picks · 433 bans
Luna
255 picks · 341 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 340 bans
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
230 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Грузия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Грузия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Грузия 70%Туркменистан 30%
The model gave 70% on Грузия — the game was taken by Грузия in 22:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteГрузия · 70%
Series resultГрузия 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1