ВКСЛ 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs predictionГГУАПloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
НМНИУ МЭИwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ГУАП
No games played over 6 months.
НИУ МЭИ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 582 bans
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
554 picks · 1297 bans
Doom
551 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
494 picks · 557 bans
Pangolier
472 picks · 953 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1121 bans
Enchantress
453 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ГУАП
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% ГУАП
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ГУАП 50%НИУ МЭИ 50%
The model gave 50% on ГУАП — the game was taken by НИУ МЭИ.
Model check result
Model favoriteГУАП · 50%
Series resultНИУ МЭИ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1