PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHHabibisloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Packet Losswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Habibis
No games played over 6 months.
No Packet Loss
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 388 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 806 bans
Phoenix
328 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% No Packet Loss
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% No Packet Loss
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Habibis 21%No Packet Loss 79%
The model gave 79% on No Packet Loss — the game was taken by No Packet Loss.
Game 2prediction correct24:38
Habibis 21%No Packet Loss 79%
The model gave 79% on No Packet Loss — the game was taken by No Packet Loss in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Packet Loss · 79%
Series resultNo Packet Loss 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2