Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU Gamingwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TMTrouble Makers Rebornloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1037 bans
Doom
402 picks · 672 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 982 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% HAVU Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Trouble Makers Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
HAVU Gaming 44%Trouble Makers Reborn 56%
The model gave 56% on Trouble Makers Reborn — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteTrouble Makers Reborn · 56%
Series resultHAVU Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1