Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Creepwaveloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
326 picks · 665 bans
Void Spirit
311 picks · 380 bans
Mars
261 picks · 457 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 113 bans
Death Prophet
210 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
210 picks · 240 bans
Nyx Assassin
209 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Hellbear Smashers 55%Creepwave 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAce
BristlebackCrystallis
EnigmaMISERY
PuckMalr1ne
PugnaStormstormer
AxeATF
UndyingtOfu
Dark WillowMiLAN
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Keeper of the LightFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 60%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1