ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Into The Breachloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Into The Breach
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 9 games
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Era · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 975 bans
Lion
372 picks · 198 bans
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 635 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 55%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect