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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
84%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 7 games
86%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
20%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 970 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
404 picks · 563 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 707 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 582 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 300 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 294 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 207 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
261 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:32
Hellbear Smashers 65%OG 35%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by OG in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeMISERY
52% · 16 games31% · 8 games
Slarkana
Slark
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
63% · 40 games51% · 115 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Riki
RikiAce
40% · 30 games44% · 20 games
AlchemistCeb
Alchemist
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
57% · 133 games46% · 44 games
LionSaksa
Lion
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntertOfu
57% · 17 games41% · 49 games
Oraclen0tail
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Hellbear Smashers 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
59% · 101 game47% · 11 games
Spectreana
Spectre
Leshrac
LeshracStormstormer
46% · 56 games51% · 190 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordMISERY
50% · 39 games57% · 53 games
Elder TitanCeb
Elder Titan
Lion
LionGilgir
42% · 141 game53% · 27 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Abaddon
AbaddontOfu
50% · 68 games46% · 124 games
Grimstroken0tail
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed13:19
Hellbear Smashers 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by OG in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenAce
55% · 8 games50% · 6 games
Anti-Mageana
Anti-Mage
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
66% · 13 games43% · 30 games
Troll WarlordTopson
Troll Warlord
Underlord
UnderlordMISERY
41% · 9 games45% · 15 games
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
59% · 16 games54% · 7 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingtOfu
46% · 12 gameslittle data
Warlockn0tail
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 70%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3