Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 3:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 3:1
PuckChamploss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 6 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
226 picks · 485 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 263 bans
Mars
199 picks · 361 bans
Earth Spirit
181 picks · 149 bans
Keeper of the Light
160 picks · 256 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
147 picks · 490 bans
Rubick
139 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:15
Hellbear Smashers 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 37:13.
Game 2prediction missed18:20
Hellbear Smashers 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 28:43.
Game 3prediction correct24:48
Hellbear Smashers 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 48:28.
Game 4prediction missed29:32
Hellbear Smashers 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 1:03:32.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 51%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4