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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
76%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 12 games
75%

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 955 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 705 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 549 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
320 picks · 326 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
292 picks · 161 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 278 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 78%
Hero pool strength55% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Hellbear Smashers 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAce
56% · 98 games50% · 92 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracStormstormer
46% · 61 game43% · 59 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMISERY
40% · 58 games53% · 43 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGilgir
53% · 114 games56% · 92 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddontOfu
46% · 81 game55% · 126 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Hellbear Smashers 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAce
46% · 40 games63% · 13 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaStormstormer
48% · 21 game48% · 23 games
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMISERY
51% · 51 game59% · 16 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Tiny
TinyGilgir
40% · 47 games60% · 38 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
50% · 14 games48% · 83 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed25:12
Hellbear Smashers 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAce
38% · 28 games54% · 42 games
JuggernautYatoro
Juggernaut
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
55% · 80 games47% · 21 game
Legion CommanderCollapse
Legion Commander
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMISERY
50% · 73 games51% · 78 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Lina
LinaGilgir
50% · 44 games43% · 35 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
56% · 21 game48% · 70 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3