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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 23 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
76%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 16 games
69%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 9 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
hAze · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 467 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 619 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 525 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 700 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
266 picks · 111 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
264 picks · 341 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 331 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:12
Hellbear Smashers 60%V-Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAce
55% · 105 games36% · 13 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
54% · 113 games41% · 98 games
LinahAze
Lina
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightGeneRaL
50% · 15 games44% · 78 games
Viperlaise
Viper
Rubick
RubickGilgir
55% · 142 games47% · 152 games
Nyx AssassinArrOw
Nyx Assassin
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
56% · 64 games50% · 98 games
AbaddonMalady
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Hellbear Smashers 57%V-Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAce
39% · 93 games54% · 116 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Axe
AxeGeneRaL
48% · 126 games51% · 74 games
Batriderlaise
Batrider
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
55% · 97 games52% · 280 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGilgir
52% · 114 games54% · 221 game
Nyx AssassinArrOw
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LiontOfu
50% · 370 games46% · 109 games
OracleMalady
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 64%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2