Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 16 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 16 games
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 10 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 458 bans
Mars
423 picks · 647 bans
Puck
402 picks · 857 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 517 bans
Bane
375 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 166 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
314 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
HellRaisers 58%cybercats 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by cybercats in 29:47.
Game 2prediction missed24:41
HellRaisers 58%cybercats 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by cybercats in 40:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 58%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2