Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
EXTREMUM
Bounty Hunter
Chuvash · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Alchemist
Nefrit · 1 game
Bristleback
Nefrit · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shachlo · 1 game
Grimstroke
G · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
G · 1 game
Legion Commander
Shachlo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
35 picks · 69 bans
Puck
30 picks · 79 bans
Earth Spirit
29 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 28 bans
Monkey King
23 picks · 42 bans
Ember Spirit
22 picks · 27 bans
Undying
22 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:14
HellRaisers 50%EXTREMUM 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 27:18.
Game 2prediction missed6:32
HellRaisers 50%EXTREMUM 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 50%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2