Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Snapfire
Muka · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 2 games
Bane
Zayac · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Dark Willow
Muka · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
257 picks · 315 bans
Tidehunter
253 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
240 picks · 524 bans
Lion
227 picks · 120 bans
Lina
226 picks · 463 bans
Void Spirit
220 picks · 243 bans
Pangolier
217 picks · 287 bans
Tiny
210 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
HellRaisers 75%Hydra 25%
The model gave 75% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:18.
Game 2prediction missed27:23
HellRaisers 75%Hydra 25%
The model gave 75% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 75%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2