Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 19 games
Banesignature
Muka · 18 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 450 bans
Mars
461 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 543 bans
Bane
403 picks · 286 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 595 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 557 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 628 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:21
HellRaisers 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:56.
Game 2prediction missed8:28
HellRaisers 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 53%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2