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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 7 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 965 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 712 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
325 picks · 328 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
295 picks · 162 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 277 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:14
HellRaisers 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed38:18
HellRaisers 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:23.
Game 3prediction missed41:35
HellRaisers 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:13:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 60%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3