Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPangolierwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
NoPangolier
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Monkey King
15 picks · 18 bans
Puck
15 picks · 32 bans
Void Spirit
15 picks · 23 bans
Earth Spirit
12 picks · 9 bans
Mars
12 picks · 40 bans
Tiny
11 picks · 8 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Mirana
10 picks · 15 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
HellRaisers 50%NoPangolier 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by NoPangolier in 36:51.
Game 2prediction missed36:24
HellRaisers 50%NoPangolier 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by NoPangolier in 40:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 50%
Series resultNoPangolier 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2