The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 33 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 30 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
Tiny
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
Panto · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 569 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1034 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 634 bans
Marci
452 picks · 794 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 415 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 385 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
HellRaisers 41%One Move 59%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:53.
Game 2prediction correct21:6
HellRaisers 41%One Move 59%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2