Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Tinysignature
sayuw · 18 games
Miranaoften banned
Panto · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
mellojul · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 330 bans
Mirana
237 picks · 241 bans
Crystal Maiden
222 picks · 145 bans
Rubick
209 picks · 171 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 543 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 415 bans
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:27
HellRaisers 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by One Move in 33:24.
Game 2prediction missed14:35
HellRaisers 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by One Move in 31:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 59%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2