Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RGRecast Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Recast Gaming
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
5up · 3 games
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Koma` · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
LastHero- · 2 games
Tiny
TANNER · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TANNER · 1 game
Earthshaker
5up · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
297 picks · 597 bans
Void Spirit
269 picks · 343 bans
Mars
235 picks · 421 bans
Earth Spirit
221 picks · 177 bans
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 360 bans
Nyx Assassin
191 picks · 590 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Wraith King
185 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Recast Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
HellRaisers 45%Recast Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 33:08.
Game 2prediction correct33:43
HellRaisers 45%Recast Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 53:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteRecast Gaming · 55%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2