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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 10 games
80%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Petushara · 10 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
457 picks · 195 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 599 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 898 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
328 picks · 242 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 416 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 400 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 74%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:22
HellRaisers 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:49.
Game 2prediction missed15:31
HellRaisers 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 42:17.
Game 3prediction missed14:27
HellRaisers 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 52%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3