Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
Marssignature
Shachlo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
389 picks · 168 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 348 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 525 bans
Lina
251 picks · 407 bans
Winter Wyvern
251 picks · 242 bans
Luna
246 picks · 325 bans
Puck
237 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
HellRaisers 42%Team Empire 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 43:52.
Game 2prediction correct26:12
HellRaisers 42%Team Empire 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:11.
Game 3prediction correct18:30
HellRaisers 42%Team Empire 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 58%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3