Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Weaversignature
Mira · 13 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 12 games
Shadow Demon
Miposhka · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
546 picks · 384 bans
Queen of Pain
458 picks · 553 bans
Mars
448 picks · 641 bans
Weaver
431 picks · 835 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 182 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 534 bans
Spirit Breaker
338 picks · 570 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 76%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
HellRaisers 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:54.
Game 2prediction correct29:9
HellRaisers 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2