EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 804 bans
Void Spirit
354 picks · 482 bans
Mars
303 picks · 531 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
Death Prophet
269 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 494 bans
Wraith King
233 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
HellRaisers 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Unique in 52:46.
Game 2prediction correct8:26
HellRaisers 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 39:11.
Game 3prediction correct25:10
HellRaisers 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 63%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3