Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
Gyrocopter
KJ · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 10 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 779 bans
Mars
452 picks · 710 bans
Techies
447 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 937 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
432 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
417 picks · 201 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:17
Heroic 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:43.
Game 2prediction correct20:16
Heroic 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:01:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 59%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2