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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 22 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
37%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 39 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 30 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 590 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
475 picks · 240 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 481 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
420 picks · 348 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
391 picks · 840 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 368 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 542 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total55% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Heroic 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puck4nalog
52% · 230 games46% · 185 games
KunkkaNightfall
Kunkka
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
50% · 254 games46% · 150 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
54% · 108 games47% · 174 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskScofield
48% · 350 games54% · 130 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneKJ
63% · 51 game44% · 354 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed55:18
Heroic 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYuma
47% · 198 games47% · 276 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
51% · 145 games56% · 100 games
UnderlordNightfall
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
49% · 88 games52% · 36 games
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerScofield
53% · 105 games50% · 301 game
TuskMira
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
46% · 203 games53% · 26 games
BanePanto
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2