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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Davai · 17 games
41%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 17 games
41%

Aurora Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 24 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
601 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 465 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
554 picks · 682 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
498 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 549 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total50% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Heroic 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperDavai
48% · 40 games52% · 276 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
51% · 189 games55% · 411 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
48% · 441 game52% · 211 games
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskScofield
47% · 442 games52% · 251 game
PugnaOli
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
48% · 390 games47% · 353 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct25:4
Heroic 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
52% · 429 games49% · 186 games
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsWisper
52% · 379 games45% · 132 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Slardar
SlardarDavai
50% · 248 games46% · 331 game
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
47% · 110 games54% · 340 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageKJ
53% · 91 game51% · 268 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct13:25
Heroic 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
53% · 287 games54% · 310 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Huskar
HuskarWisper
50% · 56 games50% · 400 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
48% · 339 games47% · 521 game
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Tusk
TuskScofield
49% · 381 game47% · 110 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
49% · 413 games54% · 135 games
DazzleOli
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 50%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3