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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 24 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 12 games
42%

Azure Ray

Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 22 games
64%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 783 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 964 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 601 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
453 picks · 200 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 349 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 708 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
425 picks · 724 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:39
Heroic 40%Azure Ray 60%
The model gave 60% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 59:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
51% · 110 games57% · 74 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death Prophet4nalog
50% · 86 games51% · 145 games
KunkkaOri
Kunkka
Axe
AxeDavai
49% · 56 games49% · 150 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
49% · 137 games64% · 63 games
Chen天命
Chen
Tusk
TuskScofield
36% · 155 games48% · 112 games
Lionfy
Lion
Game 2prediction correct21:29
Heroic 42%Azure Ray 58%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
60% · 137 games44% · 159 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Weaver
WeaverK1
55% · 79 games47% · 269 games
PangolierOri
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
50% · 245 games51% · 29 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
52% · 111 games53% · 80 games
Chen天命
Chen
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKJ
48% · 174 games44% · 209 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 68%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2