DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 24 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 15 games
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
Azure Ray
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 21 game
Batrider
Fantasy · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 12 games
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
Hoodwink
fy · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 11 games
Snapfire
fy · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
352 picks · 323 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 463 bans
Enchantress
304 picks · 592 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 174 bans
Luna
276 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 441 bans
Windranger
249 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Heroic 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistParker
Lunalou
Earth Spirit4nalog
Underlordniu
BeastmasterDavai
MuertapLAnet
LionScofield
Elder TitanFantasy
OmniknightKJ
Game 2prediction missed5:24
Heroic 51%Azure Ray 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Shadow Fiendlou
Invoker4nalog
Dawnbreakerniu
MarsDavai
LionpLAnet
EnchantressKJ
TuskFantasy
HoodwinkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2