The International 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 26 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Phoenix
KJ · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
4nalog · 14 games
BOOM Esports
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Mirana
Tims · 12 games
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
Dragon Knight
Armel · 11 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Armel · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 390 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 190 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 343 bans
Puck
330 picks · 792 bans
Batrider
323 picks · 841 bans
Tiny
278 picks · 215 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 621 bans
Nature's Prophet
275 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:7
Heroic 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
MorphlingJaCkky
Leshrac4nalog
EarthshakerArmel
MarsWisper
BristlebackJabz
Spirit BreakerScofield
BaneJaunuel
SilencerKJ
SnapfireTims
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Heroic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
TimbersawArmel
Puck4nalog
WeaverJaCkky
PangolierWisper
MarsJabz
UndyingScofield
ClockwerkJaunuel
SilencerKJ
RubickTims
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 57%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2