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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
68%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
81%

BTC Gaming

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 868 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 381 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 633 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 589 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 820 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 575 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 481 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 568 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Heroic 77%BTC Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherYuma
57% · 45 games53% · 170 games
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Huskar
HuskarTaiLung
49% · 111 games58% · 97 games
Phantom AssassinMnz
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsWisper
46% · 294 games51% · 404 games
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
46% · 288 games45% · 361 game
TuskMjz
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
49% · 294 games
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Heroic 77%BTC Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracTaiLung
42% · 129 games49% · 340 games
Dragon KnightMnz
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderWisper
49% · 213 games59% · 65 games
ViperLumière
Viper
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
54% · 102 gameslittle data
LargoMjz
Largo
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
56% · 123 games47% · 261 game
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
42% · 99 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 91%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2