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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
chandogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 37 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
31%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 21 game
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%

chandogs

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 2 games
0%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Argius · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
639 picks · 694 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 403 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
415 picks · 381 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1089 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 826 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 563 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Heroic 83%chandogs 17%
The model gave 83% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingTaiLung
51% · 76 games52% · 216 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
44% · 48 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
61% · 60 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
35% · 19 games
Oracle
OracleKJ
47% · 13 games
Game 2prediction correct27:13
Heroic 82%chandogs 18%
The model gave 82% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarTaiLung
59% · 28 games41% · 213 games
PuckS1RENM
Puck
Mars
MarsWisper
56% · 130 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYuma
little data
Magnus
MagnusKJ
64% · 18 games
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
59% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 95%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2