?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 20 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
59%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 10 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Accel · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
543 picks · 814 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 361 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
467 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 570 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
386 picks · 728 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 572 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 468 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 529 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total89% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Heroic 74%Estar Backs 26%
The model gave 74% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
47% · 164 games48% · 265 games
TerrorbladebsK7-
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
51% · 75 games50% · 342 games
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Slardar
SlardarTaiLung
49% · 179 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
59% · 36 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
49% · 153 games
Game 2prediction correct35:12
Heroic 72%Estar Backs 28%
The model gave 72% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYuma
little data57% · 13 games
BroodmotherbsK7-
Broodmother
Huskar
HuskarTaiLung
46% · 11 games48% · 15 games
Treant ProtectorAccel
Treant Protector
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWisper
little data
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
33% · 5 games
Dazzle
DazzleKJ
56% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 89%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2