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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 22 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
72%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
47%

Execration

Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
369 picks · 769 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 340 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
336 picks · 240 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
336 picks · 697 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
313 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
303 picks · 493 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
287 picks · 610 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:28
Heroic 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordK1
44% · 63 games58% · 62 games
MarciAbat
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
41% · 85 games54% · 33 games
Winter WyvernTino-
Winter Wyvern
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
43% · 59 games55% · 138 games
Weavercml
Weaver
Mars
MarsDavai
52% · 87 games48% · 111 games
Elder TitanShanks
Elder Titan
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
56% · 50 games
Game 2prediction correct44:26
Heroic 64%Execration 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
46% · 10 games56% · 61 game
UrsaAbat
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend4nalog
41% · 50 games52% · 123 games
BrewmasterTino-
Brewmaster
Slark
SlarkDavai
57% · 107 games46% · 155 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
44% · 113 games50% · 119 games
Svencml
Sven
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
56% · 178 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 78%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2