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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 13 games
54%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 24 games
71%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
581 picks · 290 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
512 picks · 519 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1059 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 177 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 389 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 579 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:31
Heroic 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
53% · 157 games45% · 89 games
WeaverPalos
Weaver
Marci
MarciDavai
55% · 168 games49% · 137 games
LeshracBob
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderWisper
53% · 246 games48% · 160 games
UndyingTino-
Undying
Jakiro
JakiroScofield
53% · 167 games46% · 241 game
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
51% · 136 games47% · 247 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 69%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1