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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
72%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 17 games
65%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 19 games
74%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 632 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 362 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 440 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 540 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 174 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
284 picks · 176 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total73% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:8
Heroic 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistK1
54% · 86 games52% · 89 games
Templar AssassinQuinn
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend4nalog
53% · 39 games40% · 19 games
Broodmotherdyrachyo
Broodmother
Slardar
SlardarDavai
52% · 99 games42% · 127 games
PangolierAce
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
52% · 195 games44% · 59 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
39% · 13 games56% · 138 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed23:24
Heroic 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistK1
52% · 77 games49% · 36 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
45% · 21 game55% · 64 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Windranger
WindrangerDavai
51% · 160 games49% · 253 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyScofield
51% · 289 games50% · 293 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
49% · 167 games48% · 68 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 73%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2