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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GamerLegionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 23 games
48%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
82%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 10 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 895 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 395 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 649 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 601 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
402 picks · 848 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 594 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 576 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 494 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Heroic 58%GamerLegion 42%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
54% · 197 games46% · 413 games
Storm SpiritYamSun
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorTaiLung
49% · 39 games52% · 337 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
55% · 310 games46% · 134 games
UnderlordFayde
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroThiolicor
47% · 462 games69% · 14 games
LargoSpeeed
Largo
Marci
MarciKJ
55% · 162 games44% · 272 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed31:34
Heroic 56%GamerLegion 44%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
49% · 160 games62% · 142 games
Naga SirenYamSun
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgeWisper
50% · 75 games57% · 76 games
ViperRCY
Viper
Enigma
EnigmaTaiLung
59% · 52 games63% · 14 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Warlock
WarlockKJ
45% · 294 games49% · 527 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Tiny
TinyThiolicor
42% · 251 game37% · 73 games
Spirit BreakerBignum
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed
Heroic 64%GamerLegion 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 64%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3