ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HDHombre de Negroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Lion
Scofield · 14 games
Omniknightsignature
KJ · 13 games
Hombre de Negro
Clockwerkoften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Jakiro
FeelinG · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Benjimon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
473 picks · 386 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 546 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 501 bans
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 626 bans
Lion
389 picks · 204 bans
Phoenix
374 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
Beastmaster
343 picks · 882 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Hombre de Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Heroic 95%Hombre de Negro 5%
The model gave 95% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 21:57.
Game 2prediction correct19:42
Heroic 95%Hombre de Negro 5%
The model gave 95% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 95%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2