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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%

Infinity Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kiri · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Costabile · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marci
Yor · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
kendallx · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
463 picks · 621 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 438 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 482 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 419 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 612 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 360 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 275 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Heroic 68%Infinity Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
58% · 71 game45% · 148 games
MedusaCostabile
Medusa
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageDavai
52% · 30 games45% · 128 games
BristlebackFCR
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
54% · 71 game44% · 158 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
58% · 161 game46% · 51 game
Ogre MagiStingeR
Ogre Magi
Tusk
TuskKJ
51% · 152 games
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Heroic 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 22:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusParker
51% · 69 games41% · 149 games
LinaCostabile
Lina
Timbersaw
Timbersaw4nalog
49% · 107 games47% · 122 games
TerrorbladeFCR
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomDavai
53% · 111 games46% · 89 games
Earth SpiritPiPi
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionScofield
50% · 97 games58% · 89 games
Elder TitanStingeR
Elder Titan
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKJ
58% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 77%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2