DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legacyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerk
Scofield · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 22 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
Legacy
Magnus
FCR · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Snapfire
Gardick · 2 games
Treant Protector
Gardick · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
Snapfire
327 picks · 273 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 455 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
Windranger
299 picks · 411 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
289 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Heroic 65%Legacy 35%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingParker
WindrangerLumière
Invoker4nalog
BroodmotherFCR
MagnusDavai
Treant ProtectorGardick
Naga SirenKJ
SnapfireHyko
Skywrath MageScofield
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Heroic 63%Legacy 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
MorphlingLumière
KunkkaDavai
MagnusFCR
Earth Spirit4nalog
EnchantressHyko
RubickScofield
ClockwerkGardick
OmniknightKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 78%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2