?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Midas Clubloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 9 games
78%

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 5 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Hyko · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
FCR · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
409 picks · 658 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 617 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 312 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 798 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 420 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:31
Heroic 70%Midas Club 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:17:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
46% · 54 games56% · 80 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
54% · 134 games55% · 60 games
RazorFCR
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
47% · 237 games49% · 173 games
Tiny4dr
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
43% · 181 game46% · 191 game
TechiesHyko
Techies
Chen
ChenKJ
53% · 92 games52% · 194 games
BatriderWij
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Heroic 70%Midas Club 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
53% · 135 games54% · 197 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
55% · 127 games44% · 101 game
Lina4dr
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
49% · 229 games54% · 234 games
WindrangerFCR
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
48% · 223 games48% · 458 games
TechiesWij
Techies
Rubick
RubickScofield
50% · 349 games46% · 73 games
MarciHyko
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 83%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2