FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 3:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:1
MOUZloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Tusk
Scofield · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 12 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 33 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 27 games
Pudgesignature
yamich · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
552 picks · 281 bans
Disruptor
498 picks · 505 bans
Puck
373 picks · 1029 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
327 picks · 159 bans
Mars
327 picks · 542 bans
Warlock
326 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:34
Heroic 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
JuggernautCrystallis
PudgeDavai
TimbersawBOOM
PuckWisper
Monkey KingMidOne
TuskScofield
SnapfireSeleri
BaneKJ
Clockwerkyamich
Game 2prediction missed46:19
Heroic 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainYuma
JuggernautCrystallis
Night StalkerDavai
PangolierBOOM
EnigmaWisper
PuckMidOne
SnapfireScofield
EnchantressSeleri
UndyingKJ
Pudgeyamich
Game 3prediction missed31:29
Heroic 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYuma
JuggernautCrystallis
LeshracWisper
GyrocopterMidOne
AxeDavai
DawnbreakerBOOM
TuskScofield
ChenSeleri
RingmasterKJ
Pudgeyamich
Game 4prediction missed36:7
Heroic 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYuma
JuggernautCrystallis
Queen of PainWisper
Ember SpiritMidOne
Night StalkerDavai
TidehunterBOOM
SnapfireKJ
PugnaSeleri
ClockwerkScofield
Pudgeyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Series resultHeroic 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 4