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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
48%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
4nalog · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 19 games
63%

Natus Vincere

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
571 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
481 picks · 306 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
476 picks · 561 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 269 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 750 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
Heroic 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
48% · 373 games50% · 262 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingWisper
56% · 221 game55% · 104 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
49% · 143 games42% · 194 games
Marspma
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageScofield
43% · 66 games57% · 144 games
ChenZayac
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
47% · 230 games53% · 329 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1