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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 24 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 35 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 20 games
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 909 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 524 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
476 picks · 423 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1066 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 581 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 675 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
392 picks · 581 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:15
Heroic 41%Natus Vincere 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuma
56% · 219 games49% · 219 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackTaiLung
49% · 180 games42% · 68 games
KezNiku
Kez
Pudge
PudgeWisper
55% · 57 games52% · 160 games
Dawnbreakerpma
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
46% · 243 games46% · 336 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Bane
BaneKJ
59% · 135 games48% · 51 game
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct26:22
Heroic 41%Natus Vincere 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
47% · 254 games60% · 90 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
51% · 173 games46% · 299 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTaiLung
48% · 173 games49% · 417 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Warlock
WarlockKJ
51% · 382 games47% · 220 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyThiolicor
50% · 441 game53% · 397 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed18:19
Heroic 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
58% · 203 games48% · 30 games
Broodmothergotthejuice
Broodmother
Muerta
MuertaYuma
49% · 189 games48% · 95 games
KezNiku
Kez
Viper
ViperTaiLung
49% · 110 games47% · 128 games
Razorpma
Razor
Warlock
WarlockKJ
52% · 382 games46% · 223 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
55% · 256 games48% · 664 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3