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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 23 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
37%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 36 games
72%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 34 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 29 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 570 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
463 picks · 235 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 483 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
412 picks · 330 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
387 picks · 825 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 362 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 532 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
Heroic 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
55% · 246 games47% · 205 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Puck
Puck4nalog
51% · 157 games50% · 292 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
51% · 138 games46% · 179 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
45% · 193 games54% · 65 games
UndyingGH
Undying
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKJ
55% · 163 games48% · 156 games
MarciOmaR
Marci
Game 2prediction missed40:12
Heroic 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYuma
52% · 170 games53% · 218 games
DoomGhost
Doom
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
48% · 95 games49% · 107 games
DawnbreakerNo!ob
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeWisper
46% · 49 games53% · 206 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Mirana
MiranaKJ
52% · 98 games46% · 183 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskScofield
53% · 343 games44% · 41 game
RikiOmaR
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2