?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 29 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 13 games
46%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 204 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 830 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 593 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 719 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:26
Heroic 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
44% · 135 games45% · 128 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
56% · 204 games55% · 212 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
48% · 277 games48% · 206 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
50% · 129 games50% · 295 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterScofield
50% · 147 games55% · 51 game
IoCeb
Io
Game 2prediction missed13:40
Heroic 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
53% · 228 games45% · 140 games
Razorbzm
Razor
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
47% · 115 games54% · 47 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
53% · 300 games51% · 184 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
47% · 149 games56% · 95 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Bane
BaneKJ
60% · 49 games41% · 375 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2