Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 24 games
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 17 games
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Scofield · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Wisper · 15 games
OG LATAM
Tusksignature
Elmisho · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
MoOz · 8 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 7 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TaiLung · 6 games
Underlord
ILICH- · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 6 games
Jakiro
MoOz · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
542 picks · 614 bans
Ringmaster
475 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
464 picks · 432 bans
Terrorblade
384 picks · 801 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 531 bans
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 801 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 305 bans
Shadow Shaman
334 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:16
Heroic 66%OG LATAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 57:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYuma
TerrorbladeK1
Ember Spirit4nalog
Dark SeerILICH-
AxeWisper
PangolierTaiLung
PhoenixKJ
TuskMoOz
Dark WillowScofield
OracleElmisho
Game 2prediction correct32:7
Heroic 65%OG LATAM 35%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYuma
GyrocopterK1
Beastmaster4nalog
TidehunterILICH-
BatriderWisper
UnderlordTaiLung
Shadow ShamanScofield
ClockwerkMoOz
MiranaKJ
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 77%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2