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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
56%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 19 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 619 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 361 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 425 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 406 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 506 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 164 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 115 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:9
Heroic 48%PSG Quest 52%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverK1
54% · 119 games51% · 149 games
SvenTA2000
Sven
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
54% · 81 game48% · 277 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 144 games40% · 74 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
49% · 148 games49% · 166 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
49% · 200 games54% · 26 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct19:29
Heroic 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightK1
44% · 85 games50% · 88 games
Troll WarlordTA2000
Troll Warlord
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
50% · 103 games56% · 145 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
51% · 162 games50% · 215 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerScofield
49% · 61 game43% · 86 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
52% · 212 games56% · 89 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2