BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Tiny
Scofield · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Davai · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
K1 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 2 games
Chenoften banned
KJ · 1 game
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 445 bans
Phoenix
245 picks · 389 bans
Centaur Warrunner
240 picks · 323 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 204 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:23
Heroic 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistK1
TerrorbladeArteezy
Zeus4nalog
Bounty HunterSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritDavai
MarsYopaj
EnchantressKJ
TechiesThiolicor
Vengeful SpiritScofield
Game 2prediction correct44:40
Heroic 36%Shopify Rebellion 64%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerK1
AlchemistArteezy
Dark SeerDavai
PangolierYopaj
Ember Spirit4nalog
SlardarSabeRLight-
GyrocopterKJ
BatriderThiolicor
LionScofield
Game 3prediction missed42:9
Heroic 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonK1
UrsaArteezy
Zeus4nalog
Monkey KingYopaj
Ember SpiritDavai
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Nature's ProphetKJ
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Vengeful SpiritScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 74%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3