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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 30 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Scofield · 28 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 25 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 21 game
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 20 games
55%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 18 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
475 picks · 516 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 497 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
387 picks · 211 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 363 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
354 picks · 767 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 526 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 225 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
328 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:15
Heroic 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
54% · 170 games50% · 6 games
Phantom LancerTimado
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
48% · 201 game41% · 359 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderWisper
59% · 169 games40% · 81 game
AxeDavai
Axe
Chen
ChenKJ
62% · 66 games49% · 95 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
56% · 130 games47% · 195 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed50:32
Heroic 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:10:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanWisper
53% · 61 game41% · 103 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey King4nalog
56% · 212 games51% · 186 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaYuma
53% · 103 games54% · 159 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenKJ
54% · 107 games48% · 68 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainScofield
45% · 136 games44% · 103 games
LionHellscream
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2