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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 10 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Davai · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 7 games
86%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 27 games
85%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
84%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
82%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 318 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 312 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 480 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 379 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
253 picks · 142 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 332 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
253 picks · 171 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
247 picks · 462 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Heroic 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
54% · 93 games54% · 56 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Windranger
Windranger4nalog
51% · 43 games67% · 14 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Mars
MarsDavai
47% · 46 games49% · 79 games
RazorATF
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
44% · 110 games55% · 67 games
LeshracSneyking
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyScofield
45% · 111 games48% · 187 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:37
Heroic 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerK1
57% · 130 games45% · 134 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
51% · 215 games49% · 87 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Mars
MarsDavai
46% · 103 games47% · 145 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
51% · 163 games55% · 70 games
LeshracSneyking
Leshrac
Lion
LionScofield
52% · 138 games49% · 313 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 84%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2